AI Intelligence Growth

Estimated AI Level Now

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relative intelligence units

Doublings Since May 2025

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at 5.9-month cadence

Saturation Ceiling

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S-curve upper bound

Inflection Point

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growth rate peaks here

Model Context

"Just like Moore's Law, we saw the doubling in performance every 18 months with AI. We have now started to see that doubling every six months or so." — Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft, Ignite 2024

This model begins with Nadella's reported 5.9-month doubling cadence from a baseline of 10 units in May 2025. But raw exponential growth is modified by an S-curve (logistic) ceiling — reflecting the eventual exhaustion of low-hanging software gains and society's unwillingness to build arbitrarily more compute. Growth slows as it approaches the saturation limit; use the slider to explore different timelines. TODAY (May 2026) sits at roughly 2 doublings in — still in the steep exponential phase.

Baseline · 10 Human-Level · 100 Superhuman · 1K Genius · 10K Transformative · 1M+

⌀ S-Curve Mechanics The logistic (sigmoid) growth model captures a phase transition: early exponential ascent — indistinguishable from pure doubling — followed by a smooth inflection where marginal gains erode as the system approaches a hard ceiling. Here that ceiling represents peak reachable capability given finite compute investment and diminishing algorithmic improvements. The curve flattens; it does not plateau overnight.