Doubling every 5.9 months - an exponential trajectory
"Microsoft's AI model performance is doubling every six months" due to improvements in pre-training, inference, and system design.
During a keynote at Microsoft's Ignite conference, Nadella compared this acceleration to Moore's Law, stating: "Just like Moore's Law, we saw the doubling in performance every 18 months with AI. We have now started to see that doubling every six months or so."
This interactive chart displays the future growth of AI intelligence if it doubles every 5.9 months, starting from May 2025. Toggle between different views and adjust the timeline to explore the implications of exponential growth.